Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 76035.380427 80344.978562 84657.508246 89293.628752 94133.468365 99033.748101 104367.083967
2025-03-16 68406.943966 74952.842293 81691.712173 89137.885263 97125.019909 105425.251250 114692.957740
2025-03-23 64045.226851 72193.211163 80768.551553 90446.114778 101043.075108 112273.207689 125053.218261
2025-03-30 60437.436840 69773.681813 79782.957950 91278.509406 104081.629673 117868.237187 133801.036419
2025-04-06 57048.736926 67273.716196 78416.442104 91412.056257 106101.317311 122138.881481 140919.749264
2025-04-13 54045.067998 64975.143104 77064.183630 91360.161403 107734.344865 125832.348939 147275.306301
2025-04-20 52238.107234 63898.323233 76966.597494 92611.500951 110740.673536 130995.134159 155238.865331
2025-04-27 50630.007665 62937.870226 76902.536670 93811.325391 113615.973872 135961.034928 162956.312363
2025-05-04 48853.221362 61675.808910 76396.464790 94414.055604 115732.350591 140009.149597 169594.456129
2025-05-11 46928.132517 60141.580597 75484.431994 94459.735280 117130.247182 143176.137647 175180.824483
2025-05-18 45276.838248 58859.963080 74803.101721 94715.181036 118722.933897 146534.241356 180972.560399
2025-05-25 43699.032052 57598.871668 74084.342509 94868.562397 120147.322094 149662.487349 186478.772499
2025-06-01 42772.999020 57120.737856 74305.469712 96164.039817 122967.523351 154493.737085 194086.773721
2025-06-08 41145.902147 55708.147066 73330.269134 95953.214258 123930.366386 157088.230747 199023.438940
2025-06-15 40399.974168 55374.082970 73661.635452 97332.137545 126825.186085 162014.607112 206794.060191
2025-06-22 39468.722827 54763.928632 73614.823387 98213.435796 129090.610661 166175.030328 213651.767133
2025-06-29 38251.253331 53739.727405 73006.369256 98354.712203 130411.070671 169167.212137 219084.969345
2025-07-06 37013.949931 52646.530162 72271.044110 98299.552027 131457.466874 171805.255756 224079.960946
2025-07-13 36455.815373 52423.734257 72632.317116 99627.284800 134238.223029 176593.542302 231752.697957
2025-07-20 35905.763635 52189.018465 72960.348684 100900.184443 136946.657198 181301.239740 239351.897783
2025-07-27 35117.292445 51607.072806 72812.836223 101539.556700 138836.968693 184986.655264 245691.208833
2025-08-03 34123.103299 50715.345806 72230.637721 101588.011430 139951.060505 187687.944111 250800.842309
2025-08-10 33264.843385 49982.383596 71834.357686 101858.971819 141337.417816 190727.924072 256344.901057